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15.01.2015

THE COVERAGE OF ARMENIA’S INTEGRATION PROCESSES IN DIASPORA MEDIA IN JANUARY-OCTOBER 2014

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Diana Galstyan
Expert at the Noravank Foundation’s Center for Information Studies
Lilit Hakobyan
Expert at the Noravank Foundation’s Center for Information Studies

With an objective to uncover the discourse trends of Diaspora’s media on Republic of Armenia’s (RoA) integration policies, a qualitative analysis of thematic articles published in January-October, 2014 in 18 Diaspora mass media1 was conducted.

It has to be noted that previously the Eurasian Union (EAU) was presented in media as a mainly political union, whereas in January-October, 2014 the discussions on EAU were mostly focused on its economic union aspects. For this reason, most frequently the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) designation was used.

In the above said context an attempt will be made here to point out the main discourses that are typical to the Diaspora media in the selected period.

The Issue of RoA and NKR Security

In discussions pertaining to the RoA integration policies both in local media space and diaspora mass media the security factor has been the strongest ‘pro’ argument for Armenia’s membership in the Customs Union (CU). However, if in case of the RoA the security issue is clear-cut (Russia is RoA’s strategic ally and RoA is a member of CSTO), in case of the NKR it has been presented as a problem, because NKR is an “unrecognized” state and hence, the members of the union may not offer security guarantees for it. In this regard the issue of NKR joining the CU has been brought up.

In optimistic assessments the examples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia were presented as precedents, as on December 22, 2013 Russia signed with them agreements that eliminated the customs borders between them.

With such outcome membership of the NKR in CU economic union would imply indirect recognition of NKR’s independence, which was a positive argument for those who supported Armenia’s CU membership. However, there were also many pessimistic discussions which contended that with NKR being left out of the union when Armenia joins the CU would result in placing a customs checkpoint at the RoA-NKR border, with all ensuing ramifications. Although the official sources deny any rumors regarding a possible customs checkpoint, this issue still remains one of the key alarming subjects.

Economic issues

The discourse of Diaspora media regarding economic issues was focused mainly on the following issues:

• Economic opportunities provided by the CU (EEU)

• Potential economic development of the RoA (mainly related to the transport and energy sectors)

• Skepticism with regard to economic development prospects of the RoA

• Loss of the RoA’s economic sovereignty with all the negative repercussions.

Generally, the discussions of economic matters in the reviewed period were characterized by overtones of concern even in the opinions of those who supported the integration processes. The concerns were related not only to the internal economic issues (e.g.: “Actually, on paper the economy may even grow by one or two percent (due to widespread inflation), but what is certain, is that the living standards of population will decline”), but also to external issues with regard to the economic cooperation prospects of the RoA. Thus, the membership to CU may result in loss of sovereignty in economic policies. In this respect there are some remarkable comments that were made based on the statement by Garegin Melkonyan, RoA Deputy Minister of Economy: “Armenia will not be able to conclude economic agreements with other countries without approval of the CU Executive Committee,” and “…henceforth, the negotiations with the European Union on behalf of Armenia will be conducted by the Customs Union.” («Մասիս» weekly, 08.02.2014):

In discussions about economic development (in areas of both energy and transport infrastructures) references to potentially positive prospects prevail along with subjunctive mood phrases such as: “if there are sufficient investments made”, “if the transportation blockade of Armenia is lifted”, etc. “… it seems to me the membership in the Customs Union will give a chance to set out on the path of sustainable development and growth. With the help of investments, technology exchange and by solving the transportation problem new prospects emerge for large investments in energy, construction of a new the nuclear power plant unit and a new unit for Hrazdan TPP. These investments would not only secure economic stability, but also may turn Armenia into an electricity exporter to the neighboring countries, first of all Iran. («Ноев Ковчег», Customs Union will Help Armenia Escape the Transportation Deadlock No. 4 (234) March (1–15) 2014.):

In addition to the mentioned major topics that were discussed, another group of topics have been identified that although to a lesser extent, but still were expounded in the coverage of the RoA integration processes.

“Criticism of the Western policies”

Criticism of the Western policies in relation to the RoA abandoning the EU Association agreement and joining the CU and EEU has become prominent in 2014. Armenia’s decision is being vindicated by absence of Western guarantees in problems that are crucial for the RoA (security, Turkish/Azeri blockade, economic relations). Remarkably, such criticisms evidence the balanced approaches of Armenian Diaspora’s public figures and experts in the West regarding RoA integration processes. A typical example of this is the article2 by Harut Sassounian, Publisher, The California Courier (www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com), which was published after the agreement to join the Eurasian Economic Union was signed on October 10, 2014. In this article he viewed the RoA-RF relations in the context of “geostrategic and economic interests” and “realities”. He noted that there are some “compelling reasons for Armenia's decision to join EEU”, at the same time adding that “no one should conclude that Yerevan has to remain exclusively in the Russian economic zone.” He also calls on the West to help reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia by applying tax privileges and other incentives: “Meanwhile, it would be far more productive if Western countries, particularly the United States, rather than urging Armenian leaders to cut off vital relations with Russia, would actually offer tax privileges and other incentives to their investors in Armenia, thus reducing Yerevan’s exclusive dependence on Russia. Similarly, U.S. criticism and warnings issued to Armenia for its commercial ties with Iran are manifestly counter-productive. It would be far more helpful if the Obama administration could muster the courage to press Turkey and Azerbaijan into lifting their joint blockade of the Republic of Armenia which has been in effect for over 20 years.” (Asbarez, The West Must Offer Armenia Incentives Rather Than Decry Its Ties with Russia, 14.10.14):

“Dangers of the CU-Turkey Cooperation”

Concerns over the CU-Turkey ties materialized after July 2014, when the Ministers of Economy of the Russian Federation and Turkey discussed the formats of potential cooperation. This included the possibility to create a free trade zone between Turkey and CU. After this announcement there were active discussions related to the potential negative effects of such cooperation for the RoA: «Such developments are undesirable for Armenia because they will create bias toward the interests of Russia and Turkey. The two countries’ bilateral trade turnover is around $20bn, but they are going to bring it up to $100bn. This is an anti-Armenian figure, with all the ensuing consequences” (Asbarez, Turkey-Eurasian Union Partnership ‘Will Hurt Armenia’, 22.07.2014).

“Possible CU Membership of Azerbaijan”

Besides cooperation with Turkey, there is also a possibility that Azerbaijan might join the CU. The Diaspora media of Russia responded to this by presenting the positive comments from the Russian sources: “Simultaneous membership of Armenia and Azerbaijan in EEU means not only a new integration level of the union, but also normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and stability in South Caucasus” – this is the opinion of Vladimir Lepekhin, Director of the EurAsEC Institute. Some time ago during a visit to Baku, Alexei Ulyukayev, Russian Minister of Economic Development mentioned the hypothetic possibility of the Caspian country’s EurAsEC membership, whereas a similar assumption for Turkey was made by Nursultan Nazarbayev” («Ноев Ковчег», «Ев¬ра¬зийс¬кие интегра¬ционные перспективы Армении и карабахский вопрос», 1-15.07.2014).

“Armenia-Diaspora Relations”

In 2014 there were some discussions regarding the future of Armenia-Diaspora relations in the context of the Eurasian integration, in which the potential risks were mentioned: “By joining the Customs Union the Republic of Armenia will create a psychological gap between Armenia and Diaspora. Undoubtedly, joining some regional association is necessary for a country like Armenia. But how, when, for what price and which association? That is a matter of national/popular choice.” («Ալիք», «Հայաստանի հա¬մաձայնութիւնը, անդամակցելու Եւրասիական մաքսային միու¬թեան՝ եւ նրա հասարակա-հոգեբանական անդրադարձը», 05.01.14)։

A number of important events that occurred during the period of January-October, 2014 were covered in Diaspora media, thus triggering active discussions about integration processes and exasperating the concerns. Some of those are expounded below.

“The Roadmap for Accession to CU”

On February 3, 2014 the RoA Government published the roadmap for the accession of Armenia to the CU in Armenian language, which had been already signed on December 24, 2013 in Moscow, during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council session. This caused concerned comments in the Diaspora media, such as: “The roadmap is clear till Astana… the question is, what comes after that?” («Հայրենիք», «Մաքսային միութեան մուտքի կամ… ճամ¬բու անորոշ քարտէսի սեմին», 08.05.14)։

“Ilham Aliyev’s letter”

During the session of Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana, on May 29, 2014 Ilham Aliyev’s letter was read by Nazarbayev, which caused concerns both in Armenia and media-discourse in Diaspora3: “It was no surprise that on May 29 in Astana during the session of Supreme Eurasian Economic Council Nursultan Nazarbayev, the president of the host country Kazakhstan reminded, pointed out things and read out loud a letter from Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, which of course was related to Artsakh problem. Nazarbayev has already expressed his viewpoint on the matter when at the end of the last year the first steps were undertaken to compile the roadmap for accession to the Customs Union. Moreover, Nazarbayev had expressed the same idea a few months before even the idea of CU was conceived, during the meeting of Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States in Baku («Հայրենիք» weekly, «Աս¬թա¬նա¬յէն… ազդանշան», 04.06.2014)։

“Sanctions against Russia”

The potential effects of Western sanctions against Russia on the other CU member-countries, especially Armenia, also are a matter of concern: “One thing is clear in the short term. Today the whole Western world acts against Russia and imposes sanctions. Oil prices plummet, Russian ruble irrevocably devaluates. Under these circumstances hard days await Armenia in the EEU. («Ազդակ», «Չարեաց փոքրագոյնը», 13.10.2014)։

“Armenia and Ukraine: Comparisons”

The key problems of NKR conflict and security of RoA and NKR entered a new phase of coverage in Diaspora media, especially in the context of the events of 2014 in Ukraine. The Diaspora media discuss Armenia-Ukraine comparisons, likelihood of Ukrainian precedent repeating in Armenia and its potential consequences, as well as reckless policies of the major geopolitical players.

The comparisons between Armenia and Ukraine are attributable to the fact that in the same period both countries were facing a geopolitical choice: Eurasian Union or European Union? In value system terms the European integration was considered preferable, but in economic and security terms, it was noted that both countries depend on Russia. In this context the following questions have been often discussed: “is the Ukrainian scenario development possible in Armenia, can it result in change of government and what repercussions would it bring to Armenia?” Interestingly, it is «Ноев Ковчег» that addresses these topics most frequently among the Diaspora media. In particular, in January-October, 2014 a number of articles were published: «Майдан» в Армении невозможен, но власти расс¬лаб¬ляться не приходится», «Угрожают ли Армении попытки досрочной сме¬ны власти?», «Киевский сценарий для Армении неприемлем», «Гро¬зит ли Армении свой «Майдан», или чем олигарх Гагик Царукян хуже оли¬гарха Бидзины Иванишвили?»4 and so on.

«Ազդակ» daily also refers to this comparison: “As much as Ukraine could not imagine how furious the Russian bear may get, it also could have never imagined how coldblooded the European fox could be. In this background a question arises: what would happen to Armenia if it would have too adopted the Ukrainian dramatic way of divorce with Russia? This is absolutely not about justifying Armenia’s current political path of becoming a Russian subject. The repartition of Ukraine once again proves that the world has entered a new era, where the main problem, especially for small and medium-size nations, is to ensure their security, neutralize external challenges through developing and strengthening their own means («Ազդակ», «Ո՞վ է սերտելու Ուքրաինական տխուր դասերը», 16.09.14)։

Signing the Agreement of the EEU Membership

As it is known, on October 10, 2014 during the session of Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Minsk the Armenian president signed the agreement on joining the Eurasian Economic Union, which is subject to ratification and will become effective from January 1, 2015. referring to this event, Diaspora media talked about Armenia’s dependence on Russia and inability to say “no” to Russia: “Armenia’s membership in the European Economic Union has to be viewed first of all from the following perspective: could Serzh Sargsyan say “no” to Russia, or rather, to Vladimir Putin’s initiative? If yes, then what Armenia would have to pay for this “no”? What is expected for Armenian in EEU? There are more questions than answers. What Armenia would gain and lose if EEU is successful? There is no definite answer to this question either. But such question is not even relevant. What needs to be asked is what would Armenia gain and lose if it refused to be a member of EEU? Even if we suppose that Russia would not adopt an Azeri-oriented policy in the Artsakh problem, how would we withstand the economic blows? What would be the price of gas that Russia sells to Armenia, if the latter refused to join EEU. Those with anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia claim that we could buy gas from Iran. Well, if it is so easy to buy gas at cheap prices from Iran, why haven’t we done it already? Some 20 percent of Armenian GDP is formed by Russia. Money transfers of about two billion US dollars enter Armenia annually, of which 85 percent come from Russia and the remaining 15 percent from other countries. This can be continued on and on, showing in figures how dependent is Armenian economy on Russia. («Ազդակ», «Չարեաց փոքրագոյնը», 13.10.2014)։

In summary it has to be mentioned that in 2014 the discourse on RoA membership was most clearly manifested around several key issues: security of the RoA and NKR, Armenia’s socio-economic situation/development, including energy problems. Among the discussion topics that cause concerns is the impact of integration in Customs and Eurasian unions on Armenia-Diaspora relations and their development in future. The RoA integration in EEU was considered a potential barrier for Armenia-Diaspora relations. The military, political and economic future of Armenia is viewed in Diaspora media not so much from the standpoint of its positive prospects, but in terms of preventing any negative repercussions in case of non-membership. For this reason the above mentioned events were covered in media with uneasy overtones.

1 The fillowing mass media were studied: «Ալիք», «Լույս», «Արաքս» weekly, «Ազդակ», «Արձագանգ», Gibrahayer (Armenian Cypriots) weekly, «Ազատ օր», «Գանձասար» weekly, «Եվրոպական անկախ ամսագիր «Օրեր», «Ախալցխայի տեղեկատվական կայք», «Հորիզոն» weekly, «Ноев Ковчег», «Еркрамас», Analitikaua.net, Nouvelles d’Arménie, «Հայրենիք», «Մասիս» weekly, Asbarez.

2 See the article The West Must Offer Armenia Incentives Rather Than Decry Its Ties with Russia at http://asbarez.com/127820/the-west-must-offer-armenia-incentives-rather-than-decry-its-ties-with-russia/ The Armenian translation can be found at http://www.azatutyun.am/content/blog/26638208.html

3 During the session of Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana, on May 29, 2014 Nazarbayev mentioned the letter from Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, where the latter urged to accept Armenia in Eurasian Union within the internationally recognized boundaries.

4 “Maidan” Impossible in Armenia, but Authorities Stay Alert”, “Is Armenia under Threat of Early Power Shift?” “Kiev Scenario is Unacceptable for Armenia”, “Does an Own Maidan Loom Over Armenia or is Oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan worse than Oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili?”

“Globus” analytical bulletin, No. 11-12, 2014

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