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26.05.2014

NEW TRANSPORT PROJECTS IN THE REGION

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Sevak Sarukhanyan
Ph.D., Deputy Director of “Noravank” Foundation

Recently there has been a surge in work on international transport projects. This concerns also the South Caucasus and Caspian region, where several projects are close to completion. Unfortunately, these projects may to a certain extent negatively affect the regional interests of the Republic of Armenia.

Qazvin-Rasht-Astara: the Final Phase?

In early May 2014 discussions intensified around prospects of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway that would connect Iran and Azerbaijan. They were especially boosted by Azerbaijani president’s visit to Tehran in April, the significance of which was highly appraised both by Iran and Azerbaijan.

It would not be true to say that I. Aliyev’s visit produced strategic changes in Iran-Azerbaijan relations, as the documents signed during the visit did not have strategic significance and were related to some narrow, small areas. At the same time, the top-level Iranian-Azerbaijani negotiations broke the ice in the interstate relations that was formed in recent years. This was also demonstrated by the Iranian official media reports, where discussions between Aliyev and Rouhani about Karabakh issue were reported with short information at the end about the conflict, which almost literally repeated the Azerbaijani standpoint, i.e. occupation of 20% of territory, Armenian military units and 1 million refugees.

In any case, after the negotiations between Iranian and Azerbaijani presidents, discussions intensified on implementation of joint projects with participation of both countries. In May one of these projects was brought to forefront, which is the construction of Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway that would not only connect the railroads of Iran and Azerbaijan, but also would create a direct transportation channel from the Persian Gulf to Baltic Sea. This is a project of global significance, implementation of which was halted due to Iran’s isolation and strained Iranian-Azeri relations. However, recently there has been some progress made in both of these dimensions.

Thus in May, answering to a question from the official Iranian IRNA news agency, Gilan province Governor General Mohammad Ali Najafi said that the Iranian president has instructed all relevant ministries to finish construction of the Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway as soon as possible.

Gilan province Governor General’s answer would have probably drawn no much attention, because under the ongoing economic crisis in Iran there are no government funds to finance large projects. However on May 7, 2014, during the Session of the Council for Rail Transport of CIS held in Astana, Mohsen Pour Seyed Aqaie, Managing Director of Iran Railways Organization (which has a status of an observer in the Council), met his Azerbaijani and Russian counterparts and a trilateral agreement was reached that Russian Railways JSC will build Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway track. A day later this was confirmed by Vladimir Yakunin, who described the project as important and promising.

Russia’s interest in this project can be explained both by strategic and tactical considerations. In strategic terms it creates beneficial prospects for Russia, as it allows Moscow to become an international transit hub. Tactically the project is important, too, since it breathes life into the potential Russia-Iran “oil deal” that has been actively discussed recently. In this potential deal Iran is supposed to export $15 billion worth of oil to Russia and receive services and goods in exchange. Given the limitations of the export-oriented part of the Russian economy, such export of goods seems hard to implement. However, as far as the services are concerned (e.g. constructing a railroad), the capabilities of Moscow are not that limited. In this respect Qazvin-Rasht-Astara project is beneficial for Russia both strategically and tactically.

Caspian railway chain

Iran’s step up of activities in the area of transportation is not limited to Qazvin-Rasht-Astara project. Iran’s president has ordered to speed up construction of Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan railway. According to Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi, Minister of Roads and Urban Development, it will be completed in October 2014. This is not just for the Iranian section of the railroad, but the whole project. This means in near future the Iranian railroads will be connected to Azerbaijan and Russia through Qazvin-Rasht-Astara, and to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan through a second project. The first one would also allow Iran to connect to Georgian railways and port of Poti through Azerbaijan, whereas the second one opens opportunities to link the railroads of Iran and China through construction of the Kazakhstan-China railway.

In part, the reason for acceleration of works on these two projects is that Iran attempts to use the window of opportunity created by some improvement of relations with the West, in order to get economically and politically more interconnected with the neighboring countries.

At the same time it has to be noted that Qazvin-Rasht-Astara railway construction significantly diminishes prospects of constructing Iran-Armenia railway, because both projects essentially solve the same problem from the geographic point of view, that is, establishment of a South-North transport corridor. Under such circumstances implementation of one project decreases the chances of the other one materialize.

“Globus” analytical bulletin, No. 5, 2014

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