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01.07.2013

IRAN AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

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Sevak Sarukhanyan
PhD, Head of the Center for Political Studies, “Noravank” Foundation


The presidential elections, held on June 14, will be of great importance for the future of Iran and region in general. Hassan Ruhani who has been elected as president has a serious opportunity to positively impact both domestic political life in Iran and its foreign policy.

Ruhani’s victory

Though international media presented Hassan Rouhani as a representative of the Iranian reformers “camp”, in reality he is a representative of “moderate conservatives” and his political views considerably defer from the ones of Mir-Hossein Mousavi who was nominated at the presidential elections in 2009 by the reformers. Ruhani never questioned the legitimacy of the Islamic system of state and his attitude towards the reforms has always been expressed from the stance of protection of the grounds and legitimacy of the Islamic republic formation. This is important fact which will have its influence in the years of Rouhani’s presidency marked by presenting programmes of moderate political and economic reforms.

Victory of Hassan Rouhani was mostly conditioned by the oversights in political estimations and strategy of its opponents. Before the presidential elections the Iranian conservatives, including spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, tended to support the candidacy of the mayor of Tehran Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf who enjoyed serious support of the population, including moderate conservatives. But during the electoral campaign Khamenei had chosen the secretary of National Security Council Saeed Jalili who was eagerly supported by the state system, which in its turn started criticizing Ghalibaf and his activity. As a result of this internal struggle conservatives seriously affected their positions, meanwhile “moderate conservatives” and “reformers”, represented by the former president Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Mohammad Khatami and grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini Ahmad Khomeini managed to consolidate and support their own candidate Hassan Rouhani and this conditioned his victory.

Rouhani and domestic challenges

Presidency of Hassan Rouhani will pass in rather difficult economic and political conditions.

Because of the West’s sanctions Iran is in hard social and economic situation. Altogether in a period of two years even 100% price surge, which was not accompanied by the state support of the population, had been observed. Currently, a new law on subsidizing is being discussed in Majlis. Its adoption is complicated by the absence of necessary means in the budget. It is not clear yet, how Hassan Rouhani is going to settle economic problems of the country, because he was one of few candidates who did not present the economic programme.

But the issue of the economic reforms is getting even more complicated, taking into consideration current distribution of political forces in the Iranian Majlis, which is not in Rouhani’s favour. One should remember that about half of the members of the parliament of Iran were against the participation of Rouhani’s ally Hashemi-Rafsanjani in the presidential elections, which means that the new president’s chances of receiving parliament’s support are slim, though the speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Larijani promised to support the activity of newly formed government.

Rouhani and external challenges

It seems that Rouhani’s foreign policy is going to be rather peculiar. On the one hand during the electoral campaign he came forward with the programme of mending relations with the world, and on the other hand the situation in the region will complicate implementation of such policy. It is remarkable that on the day of election of Rouhani as a president, the British press published information that Iran planned to send to Syria 4000 soldiers. It is obvious that the decisions on Syrian and strategic issues in the country are taken not by the president but by the spiritual leader, but it would be difficult for president to embark on the negotiations with the West when in Syria Iran is indirectly involved in the fights with the militants supported by the West.

Election of Ruhani may have a positive impact on the Iranian-Iraqi relations which wavered during Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s presidency. The incumbent president, infatuated with the ideas of pan-Islamic solidarity, restricted direct support rendered to the Iraqi Shiites and he even made attempts together with Turkey to elaborate general policy of Iraq. In its turn this brought to the situation when a month ago the leader of Iraqi Shiites Ayatollah Sistani voiced support to Hashemi-Rafsanjani and then negatively reacted to his withdrawal from electoral campaign. Under Rouhani’s presidency (he participated in Iranian-Iraqi war and directly cooperated with the leaders and organizations of Iraqi Shiites) Iranian policy in Iraq may change and become more pro-Shiite. Approximately the same can be said about Lebanon.

As for the South Caucasus, in this direction new president of Iran will continue carrying out balanced and rational policy, in which anti-Azerbaijani line will stir up. The statement made by Rouhani during the electoral campaign that Azerbaijan threatened national security of Iran proves it. It should be mentioned that Rouhani made this statement despite the fact that the Turkic-speaking population of Iran might react negatively. Nevertheless, this statement was made and it proves how “escalated” is the anti-Azerbaijani line in the foreign policy of Iran. One should also mention that previously Rouhani also was one of those who carried out anti-Azerbaijani policy. Back in 2001 he visited Baku and handed to the then president of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev a letter from Ali Khamenei which caused tough conversation between Rouhani and Aliyev1. In particular, Rouhani blamed Aliyev in “turning Azerbaijan into the base of Zionism and imperialism”.

Taking into consideration these circumstances, it should be mentioned that election of Hassan Rouhani may trigger Armenian-Iranian relations.

1Tehran and Baku on collision course // http://ww.w.arabnews.com/node/214131.

“Globus” analytical journal, #6, 2013

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