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13.06.2011

DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN

   

Sevak Sarukhanyan

The domestic developments in Iran have essentially stirred up. The contradictions between spiritual leader of the country Ali Khamenei and the president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became apparent for the public.

The contradictions between the spiritual leader of Iran and the president are not new: over the recent years they have been referred to pretty much, but only in April-May 2011 those contradictions deepened to such an extent that they brought to the strained relations. Such development was conditioned by the dismissal of the Minister of Information (security) Heidar Moslehi. The dismissal was cause by the unconcealed protest and face-off with the president Ahmadinejad and the attempts by the head of his administration Esfandiyar Mashayi to establish total control over the works of the Ministry of Information

According to the programme of reformation of the Ministry, submitted by E.Mashayi, the Department of Budgeting and Planning should pass under an immediate control of the head of the state. This would have meant that the president and his administration would establish full-fledged control over the processes which were under the jurisdiction of the ministry and which head usually was accountable to the spiritual leader of Iran and had never been under the direct supervision of the president. This might result in a situation when, as one of the Iranian web-sites cited Heidar Moslehi: “we are obliged to ask the president every time whether we have to deal with this issue of the state security or no. It is inadmissible”.

Let us mentioned that the Ministry of the Information which functions as a Ministry of National Security in Iran works in the fields of domestic and external security independently from the Army of the Guardians of Islamic Revolution where the active political career of the incumbent president has been started. Those two organizations have often had contradictions concerning the division of the issues of the spheres of their interests: the Army of the Guardians has made attempts to substitute the Ministry of Information in many of its functions, thus trying to establish control of the spheres of domestic and foreign intelligence.

The programme of reforms carried out by the president Ahmadinejad could have directly beheaded the Ministry of Information and destroyed the balance in the work of different agencies in the sphere of national security provision, which had been formed after the Islamic revolution. This is the main reason which caused the anger of Heidar Moslehi and brought to his resignation. The re-establishment of the later in the office by Ali Khamenei proved that the spiritual leader does not approve the actions of the president either.

In a consequence the president of Iran from April 22 to May 1 did not leave his house and was not present at the session of the government and at the meeting with the spiritual leader in Ghom. On May 1 M. Ahmadinejad received his “spiritual advisor” and member of Majlis Mohteza Agha-Tehrani and a number of deputies to whom, according to Agha-Tehrani, the president said: “Rahbar gave me time. I have either to accept re-appointment (of Moslehi – S. S.) or to resign”. On the same day the president send an address in which it was mentioned that the decisions of the spiritual authorities are compulsory for him and every statesman. On May 2 the president was present at the session of the government on which, in his turn, the re-appointed Minister of Information was absent. At the next session of the government Moslehi was present which meant that the president accepted and obeyed the demand of the spiritual leader of the country. But this cannot be considered the end of the political crisis in Iran and it is conditioned by several factors.

First: Both on the days of absence of Ahmadinejad and after that, Ali Khamenei has been taking part in issues of governing the country. Over the recent weeks he almost every day has had meetings, made statements on domestic and foreign political and economic issues. This may be evidence that he prepares a possible resignation of Ahmadinejad and undertaking the current governing of the country.

Second: Despite the fact that the president repented in his press release, the issue of impeachment is on the preliminary stage in the Iranian parliament. It is planned to call Ahmadinejad to the parliament for the interview after which the issue of his resignation may be put on the agenda. Such demand has already been signed by 90 deputies, the majority of which are the representatives of the radical conservative camp, which comes to prove that such initiative came from Ghom. It is remarkable that even though Ahmadinejad discharged the Minister of Information on April 17 the first signatures under the demand were put on April 3, thus two weeks before straining relations between Ahmadinejad and Khomenei which in its turn comes to prove that discharging the Minister of Information was simply an excuse to start campaign against the presidency of Ahmadinejad.

Third: Today even those who previously protected Ahmadinejad made a stand against him. And his spiritual father ayatollah Yazdin even stated that “going against the will of rahbar is sacrilege and a step against God”.

It is obvious that today the resignation of the president seems more possible and due to this reason many people – from opposition to the radical conservatives who are against the president – will work in order to make this prospect come true. And the accusations against Ahmadinejad and his environment are diverse. Some members of Majlis blamed him for political inconsistency as instead of supporting Shiites in Bahrain he spoke about accord between Shiites and Sunnites. The similar accusations were put forward by the former Head of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran H. Ruhani.

At the beginning of May the officers of the Ministry of Information arrested people from the milieu of the head of the president administration Mashayi on different charges. In particular Abas Ghafari close who is to the president was accused of being engaged in metaphysics and connection with gins. Despite the ridiculousness of the accusations it should be mentioned that many people consider the religious views of M. Ahmadinejad too radical and weird: expectation of the imminent advent of Mahdi by the president has become one of the most discussed topics in Iran including the religious circles. Some people even call those views sectarian but it is obvious that the campaign initiated against him is not caused by those views. Anti-presidential campaign in Iran may be caused by several reasons and we will mention two of them.

Influence of the developments in the Arab world

The revolutionary movement which surged the Arab world has reached Iran but it was temporarily suppressed by the state. But it is obvious that the suppression is temporary because anti-governmental movement in Iran will be growing very fast in the months proceeding to the parliamentary elections in 2012. It should be remembered that an active oppositional movement in Iran arose during the presidential elections in 2009 and is directed against the incumbent president. The transformation of the movement from anti-presidential into anti-system is going on rather eagerly today and this may have a serious impact on both the state and authorities in 2012. Under the situation concerned thus hitting president, including the demand for the resignation, the radical powers separate themselves from him trying to pacify possible anti-governmental revolutionary movement in 2012 and to avoid the Arab scenario. In this case it can be said that “the Moor has done his duty, let him go” principle works here.

The 2013 issue

Though there are still two years till the presidential elections in 2013, Iranian conservatives and spiritual authorities are obliged to reduce the chances of M. Ahmadinejad to minimum by finding and presenting substitution for him. Till now the presidents of Iran had no option but the incumbent president differs by some key characteristics. Unlike his forerunners he is supported by the majority of the officers of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, he has strong ties with the radical conservative clergy; due to the economic reforms he set serious control over the biggest industrial, oil and banking sectors and he also tries to “take” the Ministry of Information thus making his influence in the country almost absolute.

Over the recent period it was much spoken about the chances of Mashayi – a friend, relative and head of the president administration, to become a president. If the growth of the authority of Ahmadinejad passed at the same pace, such prospects might have been rather plausible, though Mashayi does not enjoy the support of the spiritual figures and is considered to be a figure that pursues secular, pragmatic and particularly economic interests. It is rather difficult to foresee whether Ahmadinejad will lose his post or not, but it is obvious that the next president of Iran will not be chosen by him.


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